Credit Analysis and Credit Risk Modelling
Sound lending rests on careful analysis and a clear view of risk.
About this course
Sound lending rests on careful analysis and a clear view of risk. This five-day course takes you from analysing a borrower's statements and cash flow to judging repayment capacity, management and industry risk.
You will then build simple scoring models and estimate probability of default, loss given default and exposure at default, linking expected loss to provisioning, capital and pricing. Spreadsheet exercises and lending cases help you apply each technique with confidence.
What you'll learn
- Analyse a borrower's financial statements, cash flow and repayment capacity
- Assess qualitative factors such as management, industry and governance
- Build and interpret credit scoring and rating models
- Estimate probability of default, loss given default and exposure at default
- Calculate expected loss and explain its link to provisioning and capital
- Structure credit facilities with appropriate covenants and security
- Monitor credit portfolios and recognise early warning signs
Curriculum
- Sources of credit risk
- The credit process and governance
- Credit policy and risk appetite
- Expected and unexpected loss
- Profitability, liquidity and leverage ratios
- Quality of earnings
- Working capital analysis
- Spreading financial statements
- Building cash flow from statements
- Debt service coverage
- Forecasting and sensitivity analysis
- Assessing repayment capacity
- Management and ownership
- Industry and market risk
- Business model and competitive position
- Governance and information quality
- Expert judgement and scorecards
- Logistic regression scoring models
- Internal rating scales
- Model validation and performance
- Estimating PD from historical data
- Rating migration and transition matrices
- Market-based approaches
- Through-the-cycle and point-in-time PD
- Recovery rates and collateral
- Estimating LGD
- Credit conversion factors and EAD
- Calculating expected loss
- Facility structure and tenor
- Covenants and conditions
- Collateral and guarantees
- Pricing for risk
- Early warning indicators
- Concentration risk
- Expected credit loss provisioning
- Restructuring and recovery
Who it's for
Credit analysts, relationship managers, credit risk officers and auditors in banks and lending institutions.
Before you start
- Good knowledge of financial statements
- Comfort working with spreadsheets
Part of these Alalamia diplomas
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